Election Predictions

There are, of course, many important issues that will be decided by voters tomorrow. I will spend all day mobilizing voters for Pat K., and so will be off the blog until Wednesday, when I'll write about what happened. While the wind is in Pat's sails right now (the revelations of Allison's SF-based and hypocritical support, Dellums' spokeswoman's condemnation of AA's negative campaign, and the success of Pat's year-long effort to recruit Trader Joe's all favor Pat's reelection), the outcome of the District 2 election is by no means assured. Allison's hard work and personal charisma, as well as her successful manipulation of the media (until recently), have effectively erased Pat's advantage of incumbency. As Desley Brooks noted in the Express's lying, tired and poorly-written hit piece on Pat (written by long-time paranoid Perata conspiracist Robert Gammon), Allison has effectively tied Pat to Ignacio, and people believe that Pat votes in lockstep with him (which is unfortunately untrue).

Ignacio lost the mayoral election, even in District 2 (though won 60% of Chinatown), but I don't think that demonizing him is persuasive. Additionally, Pat has substantial support from Dellums voters. What is suprising to me, and could really swing the election, is that Pat is supported by the (generally) anti-growth neighborhood activists who post on the Grand Lake Guardian. They, and not the pro-growth establishment, may turn out to the biggest winners in a Pat victory. I'm not going to make an official prediction, but the numbers are on Pat's side: she came within three points of a majority in June, and Shirley Gee's 13% will most likely vote for her.

Randy Shaw of BeyondChron, while very confident of "progressive" victories in SF (Daly), San Jose (Cindy Chavez), and statewide (Bowen), does not make a prediction in the District 2 race. He says that "an Allison victory entirely depends on a high voter turnout," which is somewhat true. I cannot imagine Allison winning without huge turnout, but unless she has convinced many Pat and Gee voters to switch, the vast majority of the electorate has already voted against her twice. Unfortunately, without any stirring races beyond the Council, turnout is not likely to be much higher than June's 48%.

A young lefty on LiveJournal thinks that "Pat Kernighan may have just whoomped Aimee Allison in the runoff" because of Trader Joe's. I agree that TJ's is a major victory for Pat, underscoring her pro-growth, get-things-done message. I am honestly suprised by how thankful District 2 residents are for that. If Pat cannot win reelection despite delivering what the Grand Lake neighborhood asked for, that means that voters truly are willing to favor ignorant ideology and image over quality of life and effective leadership. Tomorrow, Aimee Allison will count on that to put her in power.